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NEW QUESTION 169
The systemic manifestation of the liquidity crisis during the current credit crisis took many forms. Which of the following is not one of those forms?
- A. Drying up of liquidity in the corporate bond markets
- B. Drying up of liquidity in the wholesale money markets
- C. Stress and large withdrawals from the money markets
- D. Drying up of liquidity in the cash market for treasury bonds
Answer: D
Explanation:
Explanation
The stresses on liquidity that happened as part of the credit crisis beginning 2007-08 led to drying up of trading and liquidity crisis in the corporate bond markets, the auction rate securities markets, the wholesale (interbank lending) markets, the money markets, the markets for structured products, and even the otherwise liquid futures and forwards markets (as there was no liquidity available to fund the financing of futures). The one market that was not affected was the market for treasuries, in fact the flight to quality ensured that this market was very liquid (even though stressed from a pricing perspective as yields plummetted).
Therefore Choice 'a' is the correct answer.
NEW QUESTION 170
An error by a third party service provider results in a loss to a client that the bank has to make up. Such as loss would be categorized per Basel II operational risk categories as:
- A. Business disruption and process failure
- B. Execution delivery and process management
- C. Outsourcing loss
- D. Abnormal loss
Answer: B
Explanation:
Explanation
Choice 'a' is the correct answer. Refer to the detailed loss event type classification under Basel II (see Annex 9 of the accord). You should know the exact names of all loss event types, and examples of each.
NEW QUESTION 171
Which of the formulae below describes incremental VaR where a new position 'm' is added to the portfolio?
(where p is the portfolio, and V_i is the value of the i-th asset in the portfolio. All other notation and symbols have their usual meaning.) A)
B)
C)
D)
- A. Option A
- B. Option B
- C. Option D
- D. Option C
Answer: A
Explanation:
Explanation
Incremental VaR is the change in portfolio VaR resulting from a change in a single position. This is accurately described by VaR_(p+a) - VaR_p. The other answers are incorrect, and describe other concepts.
It is important to know and understand the ideas behind MVaR (marginal VaR), CVaR (component VaR) and iVaR (incremental VaR), and the differences between them.
NEW QUESTION 172
Which of the following risks and reasons justify the use of scenario analysis in operational risk modeling:
I. Risks for which no internal loss data is available
II. Risks that are foreseeable but have no precedent, internally or externally III. Risks for which objective assessments can be made by experts IV. Risks that are known to exist, but for which no reliable external or internal losses can be analyzed
V. Reducing the complexity of having to fit statistical models to internal and external loss data VI. Managing the capital estimation process as to produce estimates in line with management's desired capital buffers.
- A. I, II and III
- B. I, II, III and IV
- C. All of the above
- D. V
Answer: B
Explanation:
Explanation
All the reasons and risks presented above are valid reasons for using scenario analysis, except V and VI - ie, the need to reduce the complexity of calculations is not a valid reason for using scenario analysis. Similarly, making operational risk capital estimates match management's desired capital allocation targets is also not a valid reason. Capital calculations are intended to provide adequate capital for managing the risk from operations, regardless of what management may desire them to be.
NEW QUESTION 173
Identify the correct sequence of events as it unfolded in the credit crisis beginning 2007:
I. Mortgage defaults increased
II. Collapse in prices of unrelated assets as banks tried to create liquidity III. Banks refused to lend or transact with each other IV. Asset prices for CDOs collapsed
- A. I, IV, III and II
- B. IV, I, II and III
- C. I, III, IV and II
- D. III, IV, I and II
Answer: A
Explanation:
Explanation
According to a paper by the BCBS, here is an excellent summary of what happened. Based on this, Choice 'c' is the correct answer.
"At the outset of the crisis, mortgage default shocks played a part in the deterioration of market prices of collateralised debt obligations (CDOs). Simultaneously, these shocks revealed deficiencies in the models used to manage and price these products. The complexity and resulting lack of transparency led to uncertainty about the value of the underlying investment. Market participants then drastically scaled down their activity in the origination and distribution markets and liquidity disappeared. The standstill in the securitisation markets forced banks to warehouse loans that were intended to be sold in the secondary markets. Given a lack of transparency of the ultimate ownership of troubled investments, funding liquidity concerns were triggered within the banking sector as banks refused to provide sufficient funds to each other. This in turn led to the hoarding of liquidity, exacerbating further the funding pressures within the banking sector. The initial difficulties in subprime mortgages also fed through to a broader range of market instruments since the drying up of market and funding liquidity forced market participants to liquidate those positions which they could trade in order to scale back risk. An increase in risk aversion also led to a general flight to quality, an example of which was the high withdrawals by households from money market funds."
NEW QUESTION 174
Which of the following is closest to the description of a 'risk functional'?
- A. A risk functional assigns a penalty value for the difference between a model distribution and a risk's severity distribution
- B. A risk functional is the distribution that models the severity of a risk
- C. Risk functional refers to the Kolmogorov-Smirnov distance
- D. A risk functional is a model distribution that is an approximation of the true loss distribution of a risk
Answer: A
Explanation:
Explanation
For operational risk modeling, both frequency and severity distributions need to be modeled. Modeling severity involves finding an analytical distribution, such as log-normal or other that approximates the distribution best represented by known data - whether from the internal loss database, the external loss database or scenario data. A 'risk functional' is a measure of the deviation of the model distribution from the risk's actual severity distribution. It assigns a penalty value for the deviation, using a statistical measure, such as the KS distance (Kolmogorov-Smirnov distance).
The problem of finding the right distribution then becomes the problem of optimizing the risk functional. For example, if F is the model distribution, and G is the actual, or empirical severity distribution, and we are using the KS test, then the Risk Functional R is defined as follows:
Note that supx stands for 'supremum', which is a more technical way of saying 'maximum'. In other words, we are calculating the maximum absolute KS distance between the two distributions. (Note that the KS distance is the max of the distance between identical percentiles of the two distributions using the CDFs of the two.) Once the risk functional is identified, we can minimize it to determine the best fitting distribution for severity.
NEW QUESTION 175
A bank's detailed portfolio data on positions held in a particular security across the bank does not agree with the aggregate total position for that security for the bank. What data quality attribute is missing in this situation?
- A. Data extensibility
- B. Data integrity
- C. Auditability
- D. Data completeness
Answer: B
Explanation:
Explanation
The term 'data quality' has multiple elements, ie, data in order to be considered of a high quality must have multiple attributes such as completeness, timeliness, auditability etc. Because this is not an exact science, every expert or text book will have a different view of what goes into data quality. For our purposes however, we will stick to what the PRMIA study material specifies, and according to the study material the following are the elements that can be considered attributes that make for quality data:
1. Integration
2. Integrity
3. Completeness
4. Accessibility
5. Flexibility
6. Extensibility
7. Timeliness
8. Auditability
I am not going to describe each of these here as that would be repetitive of the study material, but suffice it to say that the break-down of a number into its constituents should tie to the aggregate total. If that is not true, then the data lacks integrity - and therefore Choice 'b' is the correct answer. The other choices address other aspects of data quality but not this, and therefore are not correct.
NEW QUESTION 176
According to the Basel framework, shareholders' equity and reserves are considered a part of:
- A. Tier 2 capital
- B. Tier 1 capital
- C. All of the above
- D. Tier 3 capital
Answer: B
Explanation:
Explanation
According to the Basel II framework, Tier 1 capital, also called core capital or basic equity, includes equity capital and disclosed reserves.
Tier 2 capital, also called supplementary capital, includes undisclosed reserves, revaluation reserves, general provisions/general loan-loss reserves, hybrid debt capital instruments and subordinated term debt.
Tier 3 capital, or short term subordinated debt, is intended only to cover market risk but only at the discretion of their national authority.
NEW QUESTION 177
Which of the following statements are true ?
I. Risk governance structures distribute rights and responsibilities among stakeholders in the corporation II. Cybernetics is the multidisciplinary study of cyber risk and control systems underlying information systems in an organization III. Corporate governance is a subset of the larger subject of risk governance IV. The Cadbury report was issued in the early 90s and was one of the early frameworks for corporate governance
- A. I, II and IV
- B. II and III
- C. All of the above
- D. I and IV
Answer: D
Explanation:
Explanation
Governance structures specify the policies, principles and procedures for making decisions about corporate direction. They distribute rights and responsibiliies among stakeholders that typically include executive management, employees, the board etc. Statement I is therefore correct.
"Cybernetics is a transdisciplinary approach for exploring regulatory systems, their structures, constraints, and possibilities. In the 21st century, the term is often used in a rather loose way to imply "control of any system using technology" (Wikipedia). Governance literature has been affected by cybernetics, which is not the same thing as information security or cyber security. Statement II is incorrect.
Corporate governance includes risk governance, and not the other way round. Therefore statement III is incorrect.
The Cadbury Report, titled Financial Aspects of Corporate Governance, was a report issued in the UK in December 1992 by "The Committee on the Financial Aspects of Corporate Governance". The report is eponymous with the chair of the committee, and set out recommendations on the arrangement of company boards and accounting systems to mitigate corporate governance risks and failures. Statement IV is therefore correct.
NEW QUESTION 178
When the volatility of the yield for a bond increases, which of the following statements is true:
- A. The VaR for the bond increases and its value stays the same
- B. The VaR for the bond decreases and its value is unaffected
- C. The VaR for the bond increases and its value decreases
- D. The VaR for the bond decreases and its value increases
Answer: A
Explanation:
Explanation
The VaR of a fixed income instrument is given by Duration x Volatility of the interest rate x z-factor corresponding to the confidence level. Therefore as the volatility of the yield goes up, the value at risk for the instrument goes up.
At the same time, the value of the bond is given by the present value of its future cash flows using the current yield curve. This value is unaffected by the volatility of the underlying interest rates. Therefore a change in volatility of interest rates does not affect the value of the bond.
Therefore Choice 'd' represents the correct answer.
NEW QUESTION 179
Under the standardized approach to calculating operational risk capital under Basel II, negative regulatory capital charges for any of the business units:
- A. Should be ignored completely
- B. Should be included after ignoring the negative sign
- C. Should be offset against positive capital charges from other business units
- D. Should be excluded from capital calculations
Answer: C
Explanation:
Explanation
According to Basel II, in any given year, negative capital charges (resulting from negative gross income) in any business line may offset positive capital charges in other business lines without limit. Therefore Choice 'b' is the correct answer.
NEW QUESTION 180
Which of the following statements are true in relation to the current state of the financial network?
I. Interconnectivity between countries has reduced while that between institutions in the same country has increased significantly II. The degrees of separation between institutions has gone up III. The average path length connecting any two given institutions has shrunk IV. Knife-edge dynamics imply that systemic risk arises from the financial system flipping from risk sharing to risk spreading
- A. I and IV
- B. I and II
- C. II and III
- D. III and IV
Answer: D
Explanation:
Explanation
Over the past decade or so, systemic risk has been increased by vastly increasing network complexities resulting from greater interconnectivity between institutions as well as countries. Therefore statement I is incorrect.
Statement II is incorrect and statement III is correct because the average path length between institutions, or their degree of separation where they are not directly dealing with each other but through other counterparties to which they are exposed (analogous to 6 degrees of separation, or the 'small world' property), has shrunk and not increased.
Statement IV correctly describes knife edge dynamics, which is another way of waying that the financial network displays a tipping point property.
NEW QUESTION 181
Which of the following statements are true:
I. Pre-settlement risk is the risk that one of the parties to a contract might default prior to the maturity date or expiry of the contract.
II. Pre-settlement risk can be partly mitigated by providing for early settlement in the agreements between the counterparties.
III. The current exposure from an OTC derivatives contract is equivalent to its current replacement value.
IV. Loan equivalent exposures are calculated even for exposures that are not loans as a practical matter for calculating credit risk exposure.
- A. II and III
- B. II and IV
- C. III and IV
- D. I, II, III and IV
Answer: D
Explanation:
Explanation
Pre-settlement risk is the risk that one of the counterparties defaults prior to the date for the maturity of the transaction in question. This may be an unrelated default, in fact there may have been no default on that particular contract, but the party may have defaulted on its other obligations, or filed for bankruptcy. To deal with such cases and to protect the interests of both the parties, it is common to provide for immediate termination of positions and settlement based on the current replacement value of the contracts. Therefore statements I and II are correct.
Statement III is correct as well - the exposure from an OTC derivative contract derives from its current replacement value, and not the notional. If the current replacement value is negative, then the credit exposure is considered equal to zero.
Statement IV is correct as it is quite common to restate all exposures - those from credit lines, OTC derivatives etc - in loan equivalent terms prior to estimating credit risk.
NEW QUESTION 182
For a 10 year interest rate swap, what would be the worst time for a counterparty to default (in terms of the maximum likely credit exposure)
- A. 7 years
- B. Right after inception
- C. 10 years
- D. 2 years
Answer: A
Explanation:
Explanation
Right after inception' is incorrect as the interest rate swap (IRS) would be valued at close to zero right after inception and the credit risk would be minimum. Choice 'a' (ie 10 years, at maturity) is incorrect as at maturity there would be no more cash flows to exchange, and the replacement value of the contract would again be close to zero.
Therefore the worst time for the counterparty to default is somewhere between inception and maturity - in fact the range of possible outcomes for the contract increases with the passage of time, and we should find the worst time to default to be a later date. However, towards maturity, the value of the contract starts to go towards zero again, and the maximum value is reached around 7 years. 2 years is too early for the maximum to be reached for the 10 year IRS, and therefore choice a is the correct answer.
NEW QUESTION 183
If EV be the expected value of a firm's assets in a year, and DP be the 'default point' per the KMV approach to credit risk, and be the standard deviation of future asset returns, then the distance-to-default is given by:
A)
B)
C)
D)
- A. Option B
- B. Option C
- C. Option A
- D. Option D
Answer: D
Explanation:
Explanation
The distance to default is the number of standard deviations that expected asset values are away from the default point. The expression in Choice 'd' represents distance to default. Choice 'd' is the correct answer. The other choices are incorrect.
NEW QUESTION 184
Which of the following is not a permitted approach under Basel II for calculating operational risk capital
- A. the basic indicator approach
- B. the advanced measurement approach
- C. the internal measurement approach
- D. the standardized approach
Answer: C
Explanation:
Explanation
The Basel II framework allows the use of the basic indicator approach, the standardized approach and the advanced measurement approaches for operational risk. There is no approach called the 'internal measurement approach' permitted for operational risk. Choice 'a' is therefore the correct answer.
NEW QUESTION 185
When considering a request for a loan from a retail customer, which of the following factors is relevant for a bank to consider:
- A. The contribution this new loan would bring to total portfolio risk
- B. All of the above
- C. The other retail loans in its portfolio
- D. The credit worthiness of the retail customer
Answer: B
Explanation:
Explanation
The credit worthiness of the retail customer is certainly a factor for the bank to consider as it will need to price the loan to cover the expectation of default. At the same time, it will need to look at other loans in its portfolio as to avoid unacceptable concentration risk. A corollary of the same theme is that the bank will need to take a portfolio view of the loan request and consider its contribution to total portfolio risk. Therefore all the choices are appropriate considerations for the bank and Choice 'd' is the correct answer.
NEW QUESTION 186
The 99% 10-day VaR for a bank is $200mm. The average VaR for the past 60 days is $250mm, and the bank specific regulatory multiplier is 3. What is the bank's basic VaR based market risk capital charge?
- A. $600mm
- B. $200mm
- C. $750mm
- D. $250mm
Answer: C
Explanation:
Explanation
The current Basel rules for the basic VaR based charge for market risk capital set market risk capital requirements as the maximum of the following two amounts:
1. 99%/10-day VaR,
2. Regulatory Multiplier x Average 99%/10-day VaR of the past 60 days
The 'regulatory multiplier' is a number between 3 and 4 (inclusive) calculated based on the number of 1% VaR exceedances in the previous 250 days, as determined by backtesting.
- If the number of exceedances is <= 4, then the regulatory multiplier is 3.
- If the number of exceedances is between 5 and 9, then the multiplier = 3 + 0.2*(N-4), where N is the number of exceedances.
- If the number of exceedances is >=10, then the multiplier is 4.
So you can see that in most normal situations the risk capital requirement will be dictated by the multiplier and the prior 60-day average VaR, because the product of these two will almost often be greater than the current
99% VaR.
The correct answer therefore is = max(200mm, 3*250mm) = $750mm.
Interestingly, also note that a 99% VaR should statistically be exceeded 1%*250 days = 2.5 times, which means if the bank's VaR model is performing as it should, it will still need to use a reg multiplier of 3.
NEW QUESTION 187
When modeling severity of operational risk losses using extreme value theory (EVT), practitioners often use which of the following distributions to model loss severity:
I. The 'Peaks-over-threshold' (POT) model
II. Generalized Pareto distributions
III. Lognormal mixtures
IV. Generalized hyperbolic distributions
- A. I and II
- B. II and III
- C. I, II and III
- D. I, II, III and IV
Answer: A
Explanation:
Explanation
The peaks-over-threshold model is used when losses over a given threshold are recorded, as is often the case when using data based on external public sources where only large loss events tend to find a place. The generalized Pareto distribution is also used when attempting to model loss severity using EVT. Lognormal mixtures and generalized hyperbolic distributions are not used as extreme value distributions.
Choice 'd' is the correct answer.
NEW QUESTION 188
Which of the following are valid approaches to calculating potential future exposure (PFE) for counterparty risk:
I. Add a percentage of the notional to the mark-to-market value
II. Monte Carlo simulation
III. Maximum Likelihood Estimation
IV. Parametric Estimation
- A. I and II
- B. III and IV
- C. All of the able
- D. I, III and IV
Answer: A
Explanation:
Explanation
When a derivative position is entered into, its mark-to-market value is generally close to zero (though the notional may be high). With the passage of time, the derivative's value fluctuates in an unpredictable way, creating a counterparty exposure that may be difficult to estimate and risk manage. Counterparty risk in such cases is estimated based on Potential Future Exposure, which may be calculated using either:
a) Take the mark-to-market at present, and add a certain percentage of the notional, or b) Perform a Monte Carlo simulation, capturing the stochastic nature of the PFE.
Therefore I and II are valid choices. MLE and parametric estimation are not methods for calculating PFE.
NEW QUESTION 189
Which of the following is the best description of the spread premium puzzle:
- A. The spread premium puzzle refers to the moral hazard implicit in the monoline insurance market
- B. The spread premium puzzle refers to observed default rates being much less than implied default rates, leading to lower credit bonds being relatively cheap when compared to their actual default probabilities
- C. The spread premium puzzle refers to AAA corporate bonds being priced at almost the same prices as equivalent treasury bonds without offering the same liquidity or guarantee as treasury bonds
- D. The spread premium puzzle refers to dollar denominated non-US sovereign bonds being priced a at significant discount to other similar USD denominated assets
Answer: B
Explanation:
Explanation
Choice 'a' is the correct answer. The other choices represent non-sensical statements.
NEW QUESTION 190
For a given mean, which distribution would you prefer for frequency modeling where operational risk events are considered dependent, or in other words are seen as clustering together (as opposed to being independent)?
- A. Binomial
- B. Negative binomial
- C. Gamma
- D. Poisson
Answer: B
Explanation:
Explanation
An interesting property that distinguishes the three most used distributions for modeling event frequency is that for a given mean, their variances differ. The ratio of variance to mean (the variance-mean ratio, calculated as variance/mean) can then be used to decide the kind of distribution to use. Both the variance and the mean can be estimated from available data points from the internal or external loss databases, or the scenario exercise.
The variance-mean ratio reflects how dispersed a distribution is. (In the PRMIA handbook, the variance to mean ratio has been described as the "Q-Factor".) The Poisson distribution has its mean equal to its variance, and therefore the variance to mean ratio is 1. For the negative binomial distribution, this ratio is always greater than 1, which means there is greater dispersion compared to the mean - or more intervals with low counts as well as more intervals with high counts. For the binomial distribution, the variance to mean ratio is less than one, which means it is less dispersed than the Poisson distribution with values closer to the mean.
In a situation where operational risk events are seen as clustering together, or dependent, the variance will be higher and it would be more appropriate to use the negative binomial distribution.
NEW QUESTION 191
If and are the expected rate of return and volatility of an asset whose prices are log-normally distributed, and a random drawing from a standard normal distribution, we can simulate the asset's returns using the expressions:
- A. + .
- B. - .
- C. - + .
- D. / .
Answer: A
Explanation:
Explanation
A standard model for representing asset returns in finance is the Geometric Brownian Motion process, and returns according to this model can be estimated by the expression given in Choice 'b'. Note that prices according to this model are log-normally distributed, and returns are normally distributed.
NEW QUESTION 192
Which of the following statements is NOT true in relation to the recent financial crisis of 2007-08?
- A. The existence of central counterparties could have limited the damage caused by the financial crisis
- B. Counterparty risk was difficult to gauge as it was impossible to know who the counterparty's counterparties were
- C. Central banks had data on the interconnections between institutions, but poor understanding and analysis meant this data was never analyzed
- D. An intention to diversify from their core activities led all market participants to the same activities, which though appearing diversified at the bank's level, created a concentration risk at the systemic level
Answer: C
Explanation:
Explanation
Counterparty risk was difficult to gauge as it was impossible to know who the counterparty's counterparties were - this is true as the chain of financial transactions became excessively long with no central transparency of who owed who what. Bank A's credit depended upon the health of its counterparties, whose health in turn depended upon other counterparties. Thus Choice 'd' is a correct statement.
In an attempt to diversify, banks became more like each other - chasing yield, they piled into securitized products, and chasing diversification, they piled into different types of securitized products. The system as a whole became susceptible to small shocks in the assets underlying this vast edifice of structured products.
Therefore Choice 'a' represents a correct statement.
Choice 'c' does not represent a correct statement. Central banks had little data on the interconnections between institutions. They were aware of the large volumes of OTC transactions, but had no data to figure out who was connected to who, and who had what kind of exposures.
Choice 'b' represents a correct statement. Most transactions, other than exchange cleared futures trades (which were a tiny fraction of all trades) were cleared on a bilateral basis. The existence of central counterparties (CCPs) could have limited the impact of the crisis significantly as market participants would not have lost trust in each other, and the 'collateral damage' that was witnessed from a fall in housing prices, and thereby mortgage assets, would have been more contained.
NEW QUESTION 193
Between two options positions with the same delta and based upon the same underlying, which would have a smaller VaR?
- A. the position with a higher gamma
- B. the position with a higher theta
- C. the position with a lower gamma
- D. both positions would have an identical VaR
Answer: A
Explanation:
Explanation
The second order approximation of the VaR of an options position is given by [Option delta x Underlying's VaR - Option gamma/2 x (Underlying's VaR)^2]. Therefore, a higher gamma reduces VaR and a lower gamma increases VaR. Hence Choice 'b' is the correct answer.
NEW QUESTION 194
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